For those of you who do not read the
Arizona Republic regularly, we like to share information they
cover when it is valid. January 11, 2014, Catherine
Reagor wrote a good summary of the Phoenix housing market trends
since November. Her information came directly from Michael Orr, “The
Cromford Report,” and the W.P. Carey School of Real Estate at ASU.
Basically, home
sales in Phoenix have been the slowest pace since November of 2008.
The drop in sales has been a result of fewer investors in the market,
rising prices, and lower buyer demand. (Lenders have also told us
that rising interest rates have deterred buyers who believe rates
will drop again.)
This November, 5846 metro Phoenix homes
closed which is a drop of 17% since October and down 27% since
November 2012. Sales began to fall in the second half of 2013.
(Although it is typical for sales to decline in the fall through the
holidays, this year has seen a sharper decline than usual.)
The slide began in July according to
Mike Orr, Director of Real Estate Theory and Practice at W.P. Carey.
Investor purchases only accounted for 20% of all Maricopa County
sales in November 2014 compared with 33% in November 2012.
Foreclosures and short sales fell to 5% of all Valley sales, down for
16% last year. (So much for the famous Shadow Inventory that was
being predicted!)
Our median price for homes is now
$200,000 and has been flat since November, but it is still a gain of
23% over 2012. Orr is predicting that median prices will increase at
a much slower rate this year or even decrease slightly as more
less-expensive homes are listed for sale.
“Time has shown us the greater
Phoenix market is very volatile,” Orr said. “Conditions could
quickly change during the first quarter of 2014, and we could see
some surprises.”
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