Real Estate Market Update for December 2018

Greater Phoenix Demand Down 16% in Q4

Seasonally, This is the Calm Before the Storm for Buyer Activity

For Buyers:
Remember when you wouldn’t eat your dinner as a kid and your parents would serve it to you for breakfast or lunch until it was gone? Okay even if you can’t relate, you can imagine a kid’s disappointment in having to see the same thing day after day until they reluctantly eat it. Buyers may be feeling the same way this month as existing inventory has gotten stale and very little new inventory has been added in the first weeks of December. It’s down a whopping 26% from last December with nearly every price range under $1.5M participating in the de- cline. This reluctance to list in December has offset the 16% decline in listings under contract and the market has managed to maintain a seller market, albeit a weaker one. In the meantime, existing sellers are dressing up their leftovers with incentives. Seller-assisted closing costs have risen on sales between $175K-$300K and price reductions were up 25% in the first week of December compared to last year.

For Sellers:
Seasonally, this is the calm before the storm in terms of buyer activity. Every year, listings un- der contract drop sharply in the latter half of December before reaching their lowest point on January 1st. Conversely, between January and April buyer contract activity will sharply accel- erate. How much it will increase this year remains to be seen depending on interest rates and other lending factors. The past 3 years has seen contracts rise roughly between 70-90% in the first 4 months. Despite this expectation, sellers need to be prepared to compete more in 2019 than they had to this year. The first 4 months are also typically strong for new listings to enter the market. Even though 2019 looks like it will start off with a seller’s advantage, it will be much weaker than last year. The market appears to be resisting higher prices for homes that don’t live up to buyers’ expectation of value for their money.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

November Real Estate Market Update - 2018

New Listings Up 18% in October between $250K-$400K 

The 4th Quarter is Seasonally the Best Time to be a Buyer

For Buyers:
Seasonally the 4th Quarter is the best time to be a buyer and this year is no exception. Typi- cally buyer contract activity is at its strongest from March through May and weakest between November and January. Buyers who were out-bid by competing offers last Spring will have a different experience now. October saw 18% more new listings hit the market between $250K-$400K compared to last October while buyer contracts are about the same within the same price range. There was only a 1% increase in new listings in the lower price range between $200K-$250K but a 12% drop in buyer contracts which caused overall supply to rise another 11%. The market is still a seller’s market, but more seller competition for fewer buyers trans- lates into more price reductions and seller concessions until the Spring “Buyer Season” is up- on us once again.

For Sellers:
The market may be softening between $200K-$400K (which accounts for over 56% of MLS sales), but that doesn’t mean sellers are getting a raw deal. Monthly average sale prices per square foot in this price range have appreciated 5% since October last year and nearly 19% in last 5 years. Under $200K, the appreciation rate is 9.5% in the past year and 44% in 5 years. $400K-$800K has appreciated 6% in the last year and 14% in 5 years and the annual average sale price per square foot* over $800K has appreciated 3% in the last year and 10.5% in 5 years. What’s happening underneath that contract price, however, is an increased cost to sell at “top dollar”. That cost can take the shape of longer days on market with multiple price re- ductions, repairs, needed upgrades to the home prior to list and closing cost assistance.


*Annual averages are used in the higher price ranges to mitigate the sharp price fluctuations that affect this market.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Congratulations to our 3rd Quarter Buyers & Sellers

Congratulations to Michael and Emily Golden! The movers didn’t do such a great job getting them from TX to AZ but they do have an amazing home! Michael, Emily and the kids are now enjoying their custom Toll Brothers home in Gilbert and it is gorgeous. I loved being a part of their process from giving my opinion at the design center to providing the final “okay” for their countertops (that one was stressful!). I have really enjoyed every moment and now I will take Emily shopping for a new “purse cage.” 

Jo and Evan Bookbinder have been my boom-a-rang-rang clients!! They sold their home in Scottsdale to move to TX. They moved back to Scottsdale two years ago and bought a home just two blocks from their old one. Now they sold again to move back to TX. How long will they stay in TX? In a couple of years I will be ready for their call! Since it is always a pleasure working with the Bookbinder family, I look forward to the next time. I wish them all the best in Texas … temporarily!

Lori Lynch was referred to me by one of my brokers at Homesmart. She called and told me she wanted to buy 1 or more investment properties as her son would be going to ASU. I ignored the part about ASU and decided to work with her (Bear Down!). She now has 2 great condos in Tempe and I have hooked her up with the best property manager in town. Lori is a great client with wonderful energy and I love working with her! Time to find another property! 

September 2018 Real Estate Market Update!

Supply Continues to Rise in the Middle

Seller Price Reductions up 46% and 61% in these Price Ranges 

For Buyers:

Overall supply is down 9.6% compared to last September.  At first glance that’s nothing new.  However, for those of you who pay close attention to our monthly infographic (I know you’re out there), you have no doubt noticed that last May supply was down 15.5%, June supply was down 12.2%, July was down 11.1% and August was down 9.9% from last August.   What this means for buyers is that the Greater Phoenix market is still in short supply, but it’s subtly becoming less bad.  Most significantly, supply continues to increase between $200K-$400K.  Last month we reported an 8.1% increase in listings between $200K-$250K since May, that is now 9.7%.  Between $250K-$300K, supply has risen 15% in only 8 weeks.  Between $300K-$400K, supply has slowly risen 10% since January.  All other price ranges are either declining in supply or following their normal seasonal trends.  This is great news for buyers; more choice in the marketplace means less negotiating pressure. However, don’t expect sale prices to plummet anytime soon. The first price to respond to a supply shift isn’t a sale price, it’s a list price in the form of a price reduction.

For Sellers:

Despite the increase in supply between $200K-$250K, there hasn’t been a correlating increase in weekly list price reductions from sellers yet.  However that is not the case for the market between $250K-$300K where weekly list price reductions have risen 46% in the past 8 weeks and weekly reductions between $300K-$400K have risen 61% since January.  This is not an indicator that sellers are becoming desperate. Make no mistake, there are very few desperate sellers in this marketplace. There are, however, many optimistic sellers who may be taming their expectations. Average annual price appreciation per square foot remains between 3.5% - 5.0% for sales between $200K-$400K, so it’s still a seller’s market despite recent developments.  Expect prices to continue increasing at least through the remainder of 2018.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

August Real Estate Market Update - 2018

Supply between $200K-$250K has Risen 8.1% since May 

Seller Price Reductions Up 7% in Popular Price Range

For Buyers:
If your budget lies somewhere between $200,000 and $400,000 for a home, there’s good news for you. Supply between $200,000 and $250,000 has been rising gradually over the past 12 weeks. After dropping 15% from 2,300 listings in January to 1,944 in May, it has since risen 8.1% to 2,101 listings in August, placing it only 6.7% below last year’s count instead of 18% below like it was 3-4 months ago. Listings between $250,000 and $400,000 have also risen sharply 5.3% from 4,791 to 5,044 over the past 4 weeks, placing them only 0.2% below last year’s count of 5,053 listings. The increase in competition has resulted in a notable 7.3% increase in weekly seller price reductions from an average of 778 per week in June to 835 in July. 56% of year-to-date sales in Greater Phoenix have been between $200K-$400K so this increase in supply should come as a little bit of relief for the majority of buyers.

For Sellers:
If you have a home listed between $200,000 and $400,000, then you make up 48% of everything that’s listed in the MLS. Listings under contract in this price range have averaged 7.4% higher in volume than 2017 all year, until now. Over the last two weeks, including the end of July through the first week in August, listings in escrow have dropped to 2.2% below last year’s level. Buyer activity is expected to slow seasonally from the peak in April through the end of the year; however open contracts have dropped 26% since the 2018 April peak compared to a lower 20% drop in 2017 over the same time frame; all while corresponding supply has been 
rising. Sellers haven’t seemed to notice this sharper decline as their average asking price per square foot has soared from just 3% higher than last year in March to as high as 7% higher in July. The average sales price per square foot was up 5.9% in July, compared to 4.6% in June. However, price is a lagging responder to shifts in supply and demand. We will have to wait and see if buyers accommodate sellers’ price expectations given that they have more to choose from in the marketplace right now.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Congratulations to Our 2nd Quarter Buyers & Sellers

Congratulations, Clayton Freed! Your new home in North Phoenix is beautiful and there aren’t any radon issues! The seller was absolutely wonderful and getting to meet her made this transaction go so smoothly. I know you will enjoy this home and you will be well fed by the nice neighbors. Enjoy the grass in the front of the house! Thank you, Jason Blakeman, for the referral.

Congratulations Geier Family! After many years of having his condo as a rental, Andrew Geier was able to sell to a great investor. With an easy negotiation, cash offer and as is, Andrew had money in his pocket in less than 30 days. Now that he doesn’t have to worry about his condo, he can focus on work and family and enjoying the good life!

Congratulations to Collin Costello & Taylor Wreschner. After graduating from medical school, Collin is ready to start his residency in dermatology at Mayo Hospital. They moved up to Tucson to Phoenix just before taking a whirlwind graduation trip to Europe - they arrived the day of the Royal Wedding! Welcome to Phoenix and congratulations to you both!

What a journey for Josh & Jennah Bauernfeind and they handled it with humor and such ease - it was a pleasure to work with them. The first house was a beautifully updated home but once the inspector got in there, the flaws were costly. On to the second house in Mesa….what a smooth transaction. The sellers were generous and Josh and Jennah were grateful all along the way. Josh and Jennah…enjoy your new home and don’t forget to drink your Muscle Milk! 

When Charuta Furey first contacted me to say that she would be traveling from New Haven, CT to Phoenix to see homes with her mom, dad, mother-in-law and best friend I was worried. I pictured an entourage just like “Say Yes To The Dress!” So, we named their search, “Say Yes to the House.” To my surprise, they were all absolutely wonderful - they keep their opinions to those that would help Charuta find the best house for her and her husband, Brian. Brian will be stationed with the marines in Yuma while Charuta starts her residency at Barrow’s Neurological Institute. They bought a beautiful home in Willo and I know they will love it! Congratulations Charuta & Brian Furey!

Helping Terry & Armando buy their home in Phoenix was another whirlwind adventure. Terry and Armando relocated from New Jersey and had never been to Arizona. But, they decided that is where they want to move after selling their home in NJ. Not knowing the valley, Terry and I traveled all around from Maricopa to Anthem, Buckeye to Centra Phx to help her get to know the homes and neighborhoods while Armando was back in NJ holding down the fort. After an exhausting week and no home under contract, Terry went back home. Just a week later, the floor plan she loved came on the market and we wrote an offer sight unseen. They didn’t see their home until they arrived with all of their belongings. They moved into their new home in Surprise and are so happy. Thank you, Hugh Hait, for the referral. 

Arizona Real Estate Market Update for May 2018

Supply between $175K-$200K dropped 18% in 3 Weeks Summer is a good time to List Luxury Properties over $500K

For Buyers:
Supply under $200K has continued to drop rapidly, but the $175K-$200K range has accelerated its decline over the past month far more dramatically than any other price range. After being consistently 30-35% below last year, the active supply level dropped a whopping 18% in a 3-week period putting the current count for this group 44% below last year. Single family homes only make up 41% of active listings under $200K, but they account for 69% of actives between $175K-$200K. As more buyers are looking to condos and townhouses for affordable housing, supply for attached homes under $200K has dropped 33% over the last year. However, condo supply between $200K-$300K has actually risen 10% while single family homes in the same price point have dropped 15%.

For Sellers:
We are officially at the peak of the market seasonally for listings in escrow. Over the next few weeks, especially as temperatures reach over 100 degrees in the Valley, ex- pect to see a gradual decline in buyer contracts that will continue through the end of the year. This is a seasonal trend that consistently happens every year and in every price point, even the frenzy market under $200K. The one exception is the luxury market over $500K. While it’s typical to see a decline at the beginning of Summer like everyone else, escrow counts tend to drop for a couple months and then go flat until the end of the year. In fact, luxury supply drops more than buyer activity does in the Summer making it a great time to list luxury property for those willing to brave the heat between June and September.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Real Estate Market Update for April 2018

MLS Sales Outperform non-MLS Sales in Frenzy Market 

Supply Under $200K Down 36% Over Last Year

For Buyers:

Greater Phoenix ended the 1st Quarter 13% lower in supply, which was not helped by a 2% decline in new listings entering the market. All price ranges are below last year’s level of supply with the exception of the $1M+ market, which is up 1.5%. On the opposite end of the spectrum, supply under $200K is down 36% from last year and all prices in between are down 10%. Buyer competition is typically at its strongest at this time of year and is expected to begin tapering off seasonally in May or June.

For Sellers:

Despite the highly competitive, fast appreciating environment in the $100K-$200K market, more sellers decided not to list their home on the MLS and many chose to sell to an investor instead. This is ironic considering MLS sales in that price range sell for 12% more per square foot on average compared to normal non-MLS sales, which could equate to a $12,000-$22,000 gap. Additionally, the annual average sales price per square foot rose faster for MLS sales in this range at 7.9% while non-MLS sales rose only 6.0% over the last year.

For more information on the Arizona Real Estate Market, please contact me today!

Oh by the way...I am never too busy for your referrals!

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2018 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC

Congratulations to 1st Quarter 2018 Buyers & Sellers!

Congratulations to Jodi Hamel! Jodi purchased a beautiful home in North Phoenix for herself and her kitty, Sammy Jo! (Love that name!) I was connected to Jodi through a program with AZ One Credit Union and HomeSmart. She was so excited to have her new home and the process went so smoothly. Thank you to my awesome team of lenders, title officers, inspectors, etc. and congratulations to Jodi. 

Taylor Parnall is a surgical resident at Mayo Hospital and we would meet in the mornings post-call. Sometimes she would be sleeping in the car when I showed up! But her exhaustion did not stop her. She knew what she wanted and found it. She has moved into her new condo that is within biking distance to Mayo, a must have for Taylor. The condo has a great “vibe” and I am sure she is enjoying her new home. 

Dylan & Sasha Staack bought a wonderful home in N. Phoenix for their family which includes Sawyer, Amelia and Lachlan. They closed just 10 days after Lachlan was born - way to go! The house was sold by another big family and had some very cool features including built-in bunk-style beds and a chicken coup full of chickens! Yes, if I need fresh eggs, I have a source! We cannot wait for the family to be here full-time and I look forward to a time when Amelia is not scared of the chickens that are currently the same size as she! 

Congratulations to Jason Alford. He bought the Cowboy House, as we called it, and has now made it his own. We had a few ups and downs during escrow but everything worked out. Jason now has an easier commute to work, which gives him more time to enjoy his new West valley home. 

One of the hardest parts about selling a home is when the sellers move out-of-state when it is all over. Janice & Craig Ammar were those sellers. Their daughter, whose home we sold a few years ago, referred Mom and Dad to us. Their home in Cave Creek went on the market and they had a full price offer within 24 hours. The home was contingent on the buyer’s home selling but the transaction went smoothly. Janice & Craig are now enjoying their home in Idaho. I miss them and their animals. 

Jessica and Wade Berger, along with Jessica’s father Denny Lambert, sold their Pointe Tapatio condo this year after renting it for the past few years. Their long-time tenant bought the condo which made this a smooth sale. We worked as a team to come to a sale agreement and then put the paperwork together. A lending issue created one scare but their lender found someone to pick up the loan process and we closed right on time. Congrats to Jessica, Wade and Denny for selling to their awesome tenants, Meta & Gordy Berg.

Madeleine Kloss is a first-time homebuyer and I was connected to her through a program with AZ One Credit Union and HomeSmart. I loved working with Maddie and her mom, Meg, to find her the a perfect home in Central Phx. As a Dutch Brothers shift leader she wanted an easy commute to her store near Arcadia and this house offered that. This was not a smooth process for Maddie but she did very well and Mom was a huge help. I am so happy for Maddie and wish her many wonderful years in her new home!. 

Congratulations to My 4th Quarter Buyers & Sellers

It was a tough sale for Laura Venegas, but thanks to a wonderful investor relationship I have, we were able to sell her mother’s home prior to listing on MLS. Thank you to Susie Alvarez for the referral.  We cannot wait to see how this home turns out after the investor remodels!

Congratulations Jay Sidhu! Jay’s home sold in less than 2 months in Peoria and now he and fiancé, Linda Trinh, can focus on their wedding.  Thank you, Alex Trinh, for the referral. Another home sold and another happy client!

With multiple offers on their home Michelle & Jason Brown closed escrow before the end of the year! A lot was going on for Michelle and Jason and it was not an easy road, but they have survived and I was happy to be a part of their plan! Congratulations to them both and Happy New Year!

Congratulations to long-time clients, Benny Cartagena-Hernandez & Zoe Gonzalez-Garcia. Benny, Zoe & son, David, moved from Puerto Rico to Phoenix in 2012 so that Zoe could continue her training at Phoenix Children’s Hospital. A few years later the 3 of them moved to Tucson and kept their Phoenix home as a rental. In 2017 they decided to sell their Phoenix home and move to Omaha, Nebraska – Benny, Zoe, David and their newest addition, Lucas.  Please come back to Phoenix soon!

Tanya Daniels and James Weingard experienced a whirlwind of decisions as they purchased a new home for their family, including daughters Maia and Alex. After putting a contract in on one home and then cancelling due to sewer issues, they moved to another part of town. They found a beautiful home and underwent multiple inspections, negotiated through sewer line repairs and raced against the clock to close before Christmas. Congratulations, Tanya and James…you did it!

Coby Bruckner bought the coolest home that I sold in 2017 – a 19^th Century historic home in downtown Phoenix. He and Michael Lanier will use their plant and landscape design expertise to create an amazing yard to showcase to friends, family and the public. I am excited to see how they bring out the history of the home in the interior. Get it done and let’s plan the party!