Stats from ARMLS:
Monthly Sales: June sales volume was 12.3 %
lower than last year, at 7,219
compared to 8,228. Month-over-month numbers were down 3.0%.
· New Inventory: In June 8,677 new listings were added compared
to 9,246 last year at this time, a decrease of 6.2%.
· Inventory: The total number of listings for sale was 42.0%
higher in June of 2014 compared to June of 2013…27,708
compared to 19,511 last yr.
· Average Days on Market: 82 days compared to 66 days in June of
2013.
· Foreclosures pending dropped again in June to 6,476, falling 40.5 % year over year!!
· Distressed sales total (short sales plus lender owned sales) 720 which
represented 10.0% of total sales…down 73.9% year over year!!
The Outlook (from Michael J Orr, Director Center for Real Estate
Theory and Practice W P Carey School of Business Arizona State University and
the Cromford Report.
There
is a growing shift towards a more balanced market, though it remains favorable
for buyers at the moment. Demand remains quite weak, but comparisons with last
year will become much easier after July because August through December saw a
strongly declining trend for demand in 2013. The fall in new listings and the
tendency of sellers to take existing listings off the market means that the
supply of active listings is still dropping. This is giving sellers a reason to
be relieved, but it makes for low volumes and a lack of urgency. Sellers with
no patience might be better waiting until demand climbs back to match the
supply.
Everything
that we mentioned last month is still contributing to the weak demand:
· Low participation by first time home buyers
· The inhibiting effects of massive student loan debt
· Millennial preference for the flexibility of renting
· The foreclosure wave in 2008 through 2012 which has introduced a new
sensitivity to the fact that home ownership can sometimes be financially
hazardous
· A large group of former home owners who have not yet repaired their
credit enough to re-enter the market
· Low rates of household formation, especially among 20-30 year-olds (18.4
Million are living with parents!!)
· A growing wealth gap causing stronger demand for high end homes but
leaving large numbers of people renting for the foreseeable future
In
June we saw 25 closed sales of homes priced over $2,000,000 which represents a
much stronger total than May's 18, but is still a long way below April's 39.
Homes over $1,000,000 represented 11.5% of the dollars spent, up from 10.7% in
May, but well down from the 13.4% in April. We
still have 29 pending listings for homes of $2,000,000 and over which is a
strong start to July.
We expect
the annual appreciation rate to drop from the current 7% to 8% back into
"normal" levels of 5% to 6% rather than recovering to the 15% to 20%
we saw just a few months ago. I expect this rate will bounce around but
continue to trend lower over the next 5 to 8 months.
What does all of this mean to you?
If you are a buyer, this is a good time to buy but when you find what
you like, write a contract. Even though days on market are longer, homes are
still getting competing offers. You snooze, you might just lose!
If you are a seller, you must be priced right to draw an offer. Homes
priced too high are sitting even those that have been remodeled or updated. If
you want to “test” the market with a high price, you may have a listing but not
a sale.
If you are curious about the
current market value of your home, please call and we will run the comps for
you. Those of you that bought prior to 2004 or during the downturn (2008-2012)
may be surprised to find that you have equity in your home!!
Your Realtors for Life,
Sammy Glassman & Marlys Lazarus
