Phoenix Housing Market, Already Good for Sellers, Getting Better for Buyers

The Phoenix’s housing market is shifting. “We’ve been talking for months about a growing sellers’ market, but it looks like now it’s starting to cool off just a little bit,” Tina Tamboer of the Cromford Report said. Tamboer said, while it’s still a strong sellers’ market, “supply is starting to creep up in all of the price ranges.” Even in the under $300,000 and under market, which has been in notoriously tight supply, Tamboer said, “We’re now seeing it start to grow and demand is inching down ever so slightly.” “It’s still very hot. It’s still a very good time to be a seller,” Tamboer said. “If you’re thinking about putting your home in the market, you want to do it while you still have the advantage.” “We’ve seen a 17 percent increase in weekly price reductions,” she said, adding that’s one of the first things to respond when the market softens. Despite the expected dip, Tamboer said the market is still strong and many sellers won’t notice the cooling trend as some homeowners are selling quickly and some are receiving multiple offers. As far as buyers go, a slight cooling trend is good news. “Buyers had a rough time during the past six months competing with other buyers,” Tamboer said. October, along with January, is one of the most popular times for listings to come on the market. “We’re actually having more listings come onto the market than in Octobers past.”

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Congratulations to our 3rd Quarter Buyers and Sellers!

Even with our high summer temperatures, buyers and sellers will still making things happen. 

Read the stories of our clients....what a pleasure it was to work with them!

Congratulations to Elaine Tracy for purchasing a fantastic condo in Scottsdale. Just after helping her son and daughter-in-law this spring, Elaine trusted us to help her buy her own home. She can walk to local restaurants, movies and shopping so this is a perfect location for her. And with her condo facing the pool, her grandsons can come over for a swim and day of fun with grandma! Congrats Elaine, it was an absolute pleasure working with you!

What an amazing journey it has been with Les Maness. We sold his house at the beginning of the summer and now he is on his own journey, traveling all over the US and taking photos along the way. We enjoy following him and his photographic journal via Facebook. Thank you for letting us help you find your "Road Les Traveled." 

Rick & Ashley Bondeson were referred to us by Ashley's father, a past client. Rick and Ashley are an amazing young couple who have bought a home in AZ,  a great place to plant some roots and raise a family. Congratulations to you both...we are so happy for you! 

Jimmy & Susan Leung were referred to us through a friend and financial advisor, Jay Spector. Their unique home could have been a difficult to sale but a team of investors quickly saw the value. The home never even made it to the MLS! It was a smooth transaction and Susan & Jimmy didn't have to do much but find a temporary lease and sell some furniture. They are off to their new adventure. Congrats to Jimmy, Susan and their beautiful daughters, Katherine & Elizabeth.

More Listings to Come. Sellers, Put on Your Game Face!

For Buyers:

As expected, buyers took a break over the summer.  For those looking to buy a single family home under $200K, the cool down is similar to only competing with 17 other buyers on a home instead of 50.  Sales under $200K represented 46% of all MLS sales in August so the impact of price appreciation in this area is significant in overall market measurements.

Another 29% of purchases made in August were between $200K and $300K. Good news for buyers, supply of homes for sale in this range has risen 5.4% over the past 6 weeks. The market is still hot, but not a frenzy like the lower-end. As a result, prices are not rising rapidly.

Only 25% of August purchases were over $300K. The market in this area is more balanced in supply and demand, creating a more stable price trend and equal negotiating power for both buyers and sellers. 

For Sellers:

Supply is typically at its lowest during the month of August before it begins to rise in September and accumulate until February. Unless your listing is under $200K, expect to have a more competition for fewer buyers during the 4th quarter. The two most popular months for new listings to come on the market are January and October, so September is a good time to get competitive with your listing before buyers have more selection. 

STOP!

Be sure to call if you have any questions about this report or about how the market is performing.

Would you like to know what is happening in your neighborhood?

Would you like to know the value of your home?

Do you need help deciding whether to sell or not or would you like to know if now is the right time to buy?

We would be very happy to get you that information.

Congratulations to our May & June Buyers and Sellers.

 They were all great people and their intelligence and savvy made for wonderful experiences all around. Read more below:

Congratulations Alicia Muhleisen & Anton Diy on their relocation and purchase of a new home in Scottsdale. It was a whirlwind weekend! In just 3 days, and, after Anton arrived on a delayed flight, they found their home.  The entire escrow process was handled while Alicia and Anton were back home and they arrived a few weeks after closing to find their new home updated with the touches of an interior decorator! Congrats and we wish them many happy years in their beautiful home!

Dr. Matt & Mrs. Viri Barker had a very unique situation. We sold their Phoenix home in 21 days, with tenant in place, while they were living in California. In addition, Matt & Viri were looking for a new home in Texas where they would relocate for Matt’s work. All paperwork and negotiations were completed via phone and email and we didn’t meet them until they came to town to sign title documents. It was a true pleasure working with Matt & Viri and we look forward to the day they return to AZ!

It was a crazy whirlwind working with Barry Wagner & Shana Siegel as we worked to sell their home in Aviano. The craziness included a cash offer, a back-up offer an unexpected request to replace all windows, and multiple calls for updates on each offer! As trite as it sounds, we all learned that things do happen for a reason! We know they will be happy in their newly remodeled Arcadia home because it is perfect for them! Congratulations to Barry, Shana and their daughter, Gaby.

What a pleasure to work with Dr. Peter Hoang and Amy Ngo. They fell in love with a home but the high school was directly behind. They did their due diligence and discovered that the neighbors loved the location.  After receiving a low appraisal, the seller relented, dropped the price, and Peter & Amy were able to complete the deal. Congratulations to them both….we know they will be very happy in their new home. Now if they can just figure out the dimmer switch and what it controls!

Jon Huner and Dr. Michelle Hamilton bought a beautiful tri-level home in the Moon Valley area. This home was nicely updated with wonderful views. It is a perfect location for both of them. We know they will enjoy many years in their new home. Congratulations to Jon & Michelle – we truly enjoyed working through the process with them.

Ian and Dr. Brigitte Flanagan….where to start! Closing on this house was quite the accomplishment! Ian and Brigitte flew in for a whirlwind weekend (same weekend as Alicia and Anton, named above). They found a home in the middle of being remodeled and not yet listed on the MLS. The HomeSmart listing agent was fabulous as we worked through the completion of the remodel, low appraisal and many lender delays and nightmares. They finally closed prior to their relocation. While the challenges have not yet stopped, Ian and Brigitte are doing a fantastic job smiling through the entire process. So excited to have them here along with their 3 kids! We welcome them to Scottsdale!

Market Summary for the Beginning of July

The following Information is provided by Michael Orr and The Cromford Report.

June was a particularly powerful month for closed sales, but leaves us starting July with a weaker backlog of sales.

8,721 closed listings are what we see right now and this number will change over the next week or two as corrections are posted. Helped by its 22 working days, June 2015 had the highest number of closed listings since May 2013!

Overall demand remains normal with little signs of change. However, overall supply continues to dwindle. The most interesting indicator to watch is which price ranges have an increasing supply and which are reducing.

For single family active listings (excluding UCB which have a contract but are taking back-up offers) within Greater Phoenix supply of homes are as follows:

•  Under $100,000 - down to 251 from 277 last month

•  $100,000 to $199,999 - up to 2,672 from 2,605 last month

•  $200,000 to $299,999 - down to 3,412 from 3,542 last month

•  $300,000 to $499,999 - down to 4,315 from 4,408 last month

•  $500,000 to $999,999 - down to 2,525 from 2,705 last month

•  $1,000,000 and over - down to 1,346 from 1,622 last month

In contrast to previous months, the price range between $100,000 and $199,999 got a little relief while the luxury market lost the most supply in percentage terms. The latter was partly due to a larger number of expiring and cancelled listings.

Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2015 relative to July 1, 2014 for all areas & types:

•  Active Listings (excluding UCB): 19,548 versus 24,440 last year - down 20.0% - and down 3.9% from 20,351 last month

•  Active Listings (including UCB): 23,228 versus 27,695 last year - down 15.9% - and down 5.3% compared with 24,595 last month

•  Pending Listings: 7,007 versus 6,426 last year - up 9.0% - but down 10.4% from 7,819 last month

•  Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 10,747 versus 9,681 last year - up 11.0% - but down 10.9% from 12,063 last month

•  Monthly Sales: 8,721 versus 7,228 last year - up 20.7% - and up 5.6% from 8,261 last month

•  Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $135.79 versus $129.67 last year - up 4.7% - but down 0.3% from $136.16 last month

•  Monthly Median Sales Price: $214,990 versus $198,000 last year - up 8.5% - and up 0.9% from $213,000 last month

Pricing did not change much over the last month, with a slight increase in the monthly median and a slight decrease in the price per square foot. However, pricing is substantially higher than it was 6 months ago.

The busy spring is now well and truly over and we are entering the summer doldrums. Contract signings and closings will slow and we are likely to see directionless trends until we get to the end of September.

So what conclusion should we draw from these statistics? If your home is currently on the market, you may not be seeing as many showings as you did in the spring. If you are buying, you may have more negotiating power right now in some price points. If you want to list your home, use the summer to make repairs, clean up clutter and let us help you stage your home. Then call us to list your home in September to catch the buyers before Thanksgiving arrives.

Please call us today if you would like more information! We are here to help you in any way we can!

Local Real Estate Market Update - A Different Point of View from the National News!

This week we have attended classes dealing with current market conditions in the Phoenix metro area and would like to share what we have learned. Our source, as always, is Michael Orr and “The Cromford Report” which only studies Maricopa and Pima counties. We do not march to the same beat as the rest of the nation, so beware what you read in national publications! This information is as of May 17, 2015.

Phoenix is considered a recovering market and this is based on contract activity and pending/closed sales. The “hot” areas of the Valley are the west side (west of the 51) and the south-east. Many of these zip codes have more contracts than listings so demand is high and inventory is low. Homes under $200,000 are almost gone and now it is creeping up to under $300,000. The biggest feeding frenzy is anything under $300,000 at this point in time. This is single family homes and does not include condos, patio homes, or townhomes.

The zip codes in Scottsdale that are also hot are 85250 and 85257 where 80 to 100% of the listings have contracts. Paradise Valley is warm with 414 active listings and only 22% of the listings under contract. Luxury sellers were holding back but when they heard the market was good this Spring, many listed and that pushed inventory to a new high. Now they either have to lower their price or pull the homes off the market once again.

Overall demand has returned to just above normal with little to no sign of further momentum beyond this point. Currently the supply situation is the most important thing to watch and this is what determines how much competition buyers will experience. Demand usually drops once the temperature reaches 100, so we have about 5-6 weeks of buying left for this cycle. The market slows in the summer, bumps up a bit in the fall, and then drops again until January when our busiest season runs until June/July. And then repeat!

Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for May 1, 2015 relative to May 1, 2014 for all areas & types:

• ·      Active Listings: 21,512 versus 26,205 last year - down 17.9% - and down 3.5% from 22,303 last month
• ·      Pending Listings: 7,951 versus 7,199 last year - up 10.4% - and up 1.2% from 7,853 last month
• ·      Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 12,276 versus 10,584 last year - up 15.8% - and up 2.4% from 11,988 last month
• ·      Monthly Sales: 8,363 versus 7,572 last year - up 10.4% - and up 6.0% from 7,887 last month
• ·      Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $135.88 versus $130.27 last year - up 4.3% - and up 2.9% from $131.99 last month
• ·      Monthly Median Sales Price: $202,000 versus $190,000 last year - up 6.3% - and up 1.0% from $200,000 last month

From a seller's perspective there is a lot of encouragement in this batch of numbers, though buyers might be dismayed to see price per sq. ft. rise by almost 3% in a single month.

For the market as a whole we currently see 3.1 months of supply, which is significantly below normal, but not excessively so. However, when we look at the single-family market by price range we see certain price bands with much lower supply:

• ·      $100K-$125K - 0.8 months (versus 1.8 on May 1, 2014)
• ·      $125K-$150K - 0.9 months (versus 1.9)
• ·      $150K-$175K - 1.1 months (versus 2.3)
• ·      $175K-$200K - 1.3 months (versus 2.6)

As we move upmarket from $250K, things become a little easier for buyers because supply is less scarce. Once we get above $400K there are more active listings than last year and most buyers are having a much easier time with less competition from other buyers. In other words, demand is good but supply is plentiful at these higher price points.

Although many are feeling more optimistic about the market, and justifiably so, the lack of supply of entry-level homes is a very troubling sign. The most obvious source of new supply would be the large number of homes that are currently owned by landlords and used as rentals. However vacancy rates are low, rents are rising and these landlords would probably buy more properties if they could rather than sell them off. There are remarkably few new homes being built below $200K and if this situation persists, it is going to remain a very competitive struggle for buyers. Prices are likely to rise faster than earnings. This is good for current homeowners but bad for those currently renting and wanting to get started in home ownership.

As always, call or email us if you want specific information on your zip code and neighborhood. These trends may not be applicable to your neighborhood so it is always best to run comps rather than make assumptions!

We are here to help you!

Congratulations to our April Buyers and Sellers!

What a fantastic month!!! Congratulations to all of our buyers and sellers in April. Donations were made to local charities in honor of your sales. Thank you for trusting us with one of the largest decisions you will make!

What a great find for Dr. Joe and Jane Matthews! After one year in the Valley, they ditched their rental and bought the perfect home in North Scottsdale. They nabbed one of the best properties at a great price and closed in two weeks. Great home, great clients! And now the move begins!! Thank you Rich & Sue Cohen for the referral. 

Thanks to Rosemary Stralser for referring Loren Counce to us! Sammy and I are “Family Serving Families” so it was bittersweet to help Loren sell his beloved daughter’s house. What makes it rewarding is helping him move on and knowing that another family will honor his daughter by making new, beautiful memories in the home.

Congratulations Peg "Moose" Mulloy on both the sale of her home on Acoma and purchase of her new home on 44th Place. It is time for Moose to start a new chapter in her life and what better way than in her new home. She and her kids (3 dogs Merlin, Starbuck and Murphy, and 1 talking Wockabird) are so happy in their new place!  Cannot wait to see what Wockabird has to say about her new digs! And, so excited that she is not too far from me - many get together with wine and friends in your future, my friend. 

I am so glad that Christina Jimenez was sitting next to me getting a pedicure and we started talking. That conversation resulted in the sale of her home! Tenants were moving out and we found an investor to buy the home before it even hit the market! Thanks for being such a great client and I am so glad we could get this home sold and closed in under 30 days. Congrats Christina and I look forward to an ongoing friendship and many more pedicures together :) 

Congratulations to Renee Hanson and Peter Weber for their purchase to preserve 9 acres of land next to their home in Rio Verde. You will forever have your view of the Tonto National Forest! Thank you for trusting me with this purchase as it was my first land transaction. And, thank you for your patience as I tracked down the owner and negotiated a great price for you. The coolest thing is that Renee and Peter closed on this transaction 2 years, to the date, that she bought her beautiful home in Rio Verde. Congratulations and let's go get you more land :)

Congratulations to Regina Coronado and Waldo Henriquez for selling your home in Avondale. It is sad that you didn't get to move out here but everything happens for a reason. I know your buyer is enjoying this newly built home and you continue to enjoy California. Hope to see you in AZ soon!