MARKET DATA & PHILANTHROPY          |          TESTIMONIALS


Saturday, May 7, 2011

Low Down Payment Programs Available!

For people who want to buy a home but don't have a lot of money, there are still a few low down payment programs available. Please feel free to share this with anyone you know who is buying a home and may want to know more about FHA (3.5% down), HomePath (3% down) and FHA Repo Loans ($100 down).

To view the video by Brian Yampolsky and Joe Ashton at Orion Mortgage Corporation, click here

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

If You Are Waiting for the Second Bottom - You Just Missed It!

Almost all the market indicators for Greater Phoenix have been strongly improving since the fourth quarter of 2010. Let's look at what has happened since then using the numbers for all areas and types of ARMLS residential resale listings.





  • Active Listings (Total): Peaking on November 20 at 45,960, supply has since declined over 25% to 34,364


  • Sales per Month: Reached a low point of 6,195 on January 31, has since risen 49% to 9,237 today.


  • Month's Supply: Rose to 6.8 on October 6, has since fallen 48% to 3.5


  • Cromford Market Index: Hit a low of 85.2 on September 28, has since recovered strongly to 123.1.


We can now declare January 22, 2011 to be an official pricing bottom for the overall ARMLS market (all areas and types), with average sales price per sq. ft. at a low level ($80.74 per sq. ft.) we are unlikely to see again. Those waiting for the second bottom just missed it. At the moment we are looking at a W shaped recovery pattern and prices are starting to move up the second upward leg.



We should point out that the sales price per sq. ft. for lender-owned homes is still making fresh lows this week. This is not bringing down the overall $/SF because lender-owened homes are gradually falling as a percentage of the total while normal sales are taking a greater share.



Those looking for bargain buys among the single family detached REOs should note that the list price is now $71.22 per sq. ft. up from its low point of $68.77 per sq. ft. just six weeks ago on March 21. Short sale and pre-foreclosure single family detached list pricing has held steady for several months at around $79 to $80, while normal list prices for these homes have surged from $185.96 on September 26 to $196.53 today.



The recent increase in average sales pricing was quite sharp and was emphasized by greater participation from the luxury market. It is a little known fact that $/SF pricing for homes above $300,000 has been moving gently higher since October/November 2010 and ssales volumes are on the rise. e should expect increased price volatility over coming months as the mix of sales varies. Remember that August is historically a weak month for pricing.



In the world of foreclosures, the big news is the rapid fall of new notices of trustee sale. April delivered only 4,418 new notices in Maricopa County of which 4,200 were residential. This is the lowest monthly total since December 2007, nearly three and a half years ago. Completed trustee sales in Maricopa County fell back from the March high as expected, but at 4,709 (4,513 of which were residential) they far outstripped the new notices for the first time ever. This signals a significant phase change in the foreclosure tsunami as the activity starts to decline more rapidly. We are now seeing huge reductions in the pending foreclosure counts, with active notices at the end of April reading 32,203 which contrasts with 51,466 at the end of 2009 and 41,478 as recently as the start of 2011.



It is the continued reduction in supply that is most encouraging and inventory now stands at just 3.5 months. If you are buying right now, do not go out there expecting to find the widely reported "glut of foreclosed homes for sale". That disappeared several months ago.



The big question ow is: will higher prices lead to weakening of demand or will the sharp reduction in supply cause buyers to get more aggressive in their offers to ensure they don't miss out on the last chance to capture homes at bargain prices?



For the answer - stay tuned to our blog!







(c) 2010 Cromford Associates LLC



The data used to create the Cromford Report(TM) is obtained from public records and obtained under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC and ARMLS expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind, whether expressed, implied or statutory, as to the accuracy of the data used or the merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.