Here is our Real Estate Market Update compiled from Michael Orr’s ASU Monthly Housing Report, ARMLS STAT and Elliott Pollack Data.
April Stats from ARMLS
· Monthly Sales: April sales volume was 12.5 % lower than last year at 7,659 compared to 8,754. Month-over-month numbers were up 14.1%.
· New Inventory: In April 10,027 new listings were added compared to 9,870 last year at this time, an 1.6% increase.
· Inventory: The total number of listings for sale was 47.5% higher in April of 2014 compared to April of 2013…29,627 compared to 20,083 last yr.
· Month’s Supply: Currently we are at 3.87 months
· Average Days on Market: 82 days compared to 70 days in April of 2013.
· April median new list price was $223,000 which is a 14.4% increase year over year!
· April median sales price increased 9.9% to $189,000 year over year!
· Foreclosures pending dropped again in April to 4,693, falling 50% year over year!!
· Distressed sales total (short sales plus lender owned sales) 803 which represented 10.5% of total sales…down 61.9% year over year!!
Sales Activity and What is the STATE of the Market?
(from Tom Ruff / The Information Market compliment of the ARMLS Stat report)
· Over the past 10 months, median sales prices have remained relatively flat fluctuating between $180,000 and $189,000
· Even though the April Sales volume was down 12.5 % …the decline in sales volume occurred entirely on the distressed side of the market with short sales down 809 and bank sales down 496 year-over-year. Comparing normal sales, we actually saw an increase with 210 more normal sales year-over-year.
· STATE OF THE MARKET: FACT…if we look at the 14-year running average for MLS sales volume for the month of April there were 7,658 average sales, which isnearly spot on to the sales volume in April 2014 of 7,659 sales.
HOWEVER… If we apply the same 14-year running average methodology for home sales in Maricopa County but look at public records, then April has averaged 9,681 home sales. This April, 8,197 home sales were recorded. The sale total for April 2014 is 15% below our 14-year running average.
In addition, the 14-year running average compares only the total number of homes sold and does not account for the existing housing stock when the sales occurred. Today, there are a quarter of a million more homes in Maricopa County than existed in 2003. The reason for mentioning 2003 is that ARMLS sales volume this year has closely mimicked ARMLS sales volume in 2003. Publicly recorded affidavits of value tell us there were 23% fewer home sale transactions in April this year in Maricopa County than in 2003.
· Positive signs: Three potential large pools of future buyers like millennials, boomerang buyers, and retiring baby boomers desiring an Arizona resort lifestyle are on the horizon…the logical question now is when will these potential buyers become homeowners? This month, Stephen Kim, an equity researcher with Barclays, talked about the return of the first time buyer, a trend he expects to emerge later this year. He further expects overall demand to return to normalized levels in 2016!
Kim’s three keys to this happening are:
§ Job Growth is reaching an important threshold for improved household formation
§ Credit availability is starting to loosen
§ Affordability still favorable…buying a home is still 20% cheaper than renting
If you look at the total sales per month for 2003 and compare to 2014… very similar… will this trend continue? No one has a magic 8 ball so the take away is that our housing market is ever changing and right now it is a great opportunity to buy or sell. Buyers have more inventory, more negotiating power and prices are still good. Sellers need to be realistic about selling price and be patient, especially if the house needs updating. Price it accordingly and it will sell! Fix it up and it will sell for higher dollars and faster!
If you or anyone you know is in the market to buy or sell, please pass our information to them. We are never too busy for your referrals!
