Meaningful Market Update: Information You Can Trust

For those of you that enjoy hearing more about the housing market, here is the year-end summary from ARMLS, Arizona Regiional Multiple Listing Service. It reflects what we have been seeing all year and puts us on a positive course for recovery! It's good to have good news ... finally!!

Sales rebounded in 2011 enthusiastically, topping out at 101,436, the second highest total sales of the decade.  It was surpassed only by 2005 with 104,725 sales, at the height of the real estate bubble. (We use late mid 2002 and 2003 to mid 2004 as our last normal markets before the big bubble.)

Foreclosures pending, which fuel the Valley’s foreclosure sales, reached their pinnacle in November 2009 at 50,568, and finished 2011 at 19,979, 60.49% below the decade high.  The average foreclosures pending per year stubbornly held at 44,237 and 44,698 for 2009 and 2010.  In 2011 it took an abrupt downward turn all year.

Distressed properties as a percent of sales started the year at 70.2%. Despite a series of hiccups in direction over the course of 2011, it crashed through the 60% barrier the last two months of the year, at 59.4% and 59.8% respectively.  Not only did the percent drop 10.4% over 2011, but the short sale to foreclosure mix shifted by year end, to see short sales overtake foreclosures for the first time.

Pricing cannot correct itself until the forces of supply and demand equalize. Both List and Sales pricing are currently unduly influenced by the large numbers of distressed properties that compete for buyers.  The slowing of foreclosures pending, if continued at the current rate, should stabilize in 2012, leading to a gradual decline to normal levels of foreclosures in the active property pool. Likewise, growing lender appetite for short sales over foreclosure will also diminish foreclosure influence on pricing. National predictions on home prices are a slow but steady upward climb in 2012.  Given 2011’s  underpinning metrics, the Valley's pricing is poised to gain traction in 2012.

All in all, it was a pretty good year for the Valley housing market and should only get better!

Sources: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service; Cromford Report

Meaningful Market Update: Information You Can Trust!

It was an unbelievable year in Real Estate!

Here are the final numbers for December 2011. These numbers are for all of Maricopa County.

As of January 5^th 2012;

Total active in Maricopa County are 15,333. That’s a very low number! Only 12% of the listings are REO at 1,809. And only 16% active are Short Sales at 2,406. Total number of normal listings is 11,119 which is 72%.

Total Pending in Maricopa County is 14,326. That’s a big number. 15% are REO at 2,187 and Short Sales make up 64% of Pending at 9,299 and Normal pending are 21% at 2,841.

Total Closed for Maricopa County in December was 7,014 which was 27% REO at 1,940 and 31% Short Sale at 2,236 which is our highest percentage to date!! Normal transactions were 40% at 2,841.

It looks to us like 2012 will be the year of price increases in all price ranges. We are encouraging our buyer clients to get into a home sooner than later if they want to pay less! Sellers, it's time to run some numbers and get you on the market!

Call us and we can tell you more!

 

Sources: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service; Cromford Report

Another Home Sold! Another Donation Made!

Our congratulations to the Gillem family for weathering all of the storms to finally close on their beautiful Scottsdale home! It came down to the last hour of the last day of the contract and took the entire team to pull it through! Our thanks to everyone involved for staying focused on the goal! We wish the Gillems a lifetime of happiness in their home!

Thank you to Beth & Don Schmal for the referral. A donation has been made to angel mamas in honor of the Gillem's new home.

Positive News in the AZ Real Estate Market - Check This Out!

Let’s end 2011 with good news in the housing market. According to our real estate bible, The Cromford Report, Phoenix is heading in the right direction. Our current home price level is 1.4% higher than it was 12 months ago. This used to be known as appreciation; today it is called “that can’t be right.” But it is!

DISTRESSED INVENTORY CONTINUES ITS SLIDE

Distressed inventory is the number of homes with an active notice of foreclosure along with any bank held property. These properties have been declining rapidly since last May. Simple math and logic show this to be true but others counter with complex math factoring together a Massive Backlog of Shadow Inventory, Robo-signings, and the ever popular Bank Conspiracies. It seems these folks want to keep the drama alive, perhaps hoping for a made-for-TV docudrama! Here are some facts:

Since January 1, 2007 Maricopa County has seen 165,385 home foreclosures, a numbing number in anybody’s book. One of the main reasons we believe we’re heading into the home stretch is how far we’ve come. The news articles talk about the same decline in distressed inventory previously mentioned, only they attribute the decline to massive processing delays. These same articles talk about how foreclosures rose through last summer and then began their decline in September when the robo-signings scandal broke. Information Market numbers tell a slightly different story of a short-lived Bank of America moratorium in November and December briefly lowering foreclosures. In January foreclosure numbers picked back up resuming their steady and consistent flow. In May, Maricopa County saw 4,206 homes sold at auction with 1 in 3 being purchased by investors, leaving only 2,800 reverting to the lender.  So, at the end of the day while our detractors have similar numbers, their explanation as to where we are and where we’re headed is completely different. Since January 1, 2007, Maricopa County has seen 165,385 homes removed from the “bad mortgage” file leading loan delinquencies to their inevitable decline.

Jay Brinkman, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, states, "Of particular importance is that the drop in the percentage of loans 90 days or more past due was driven by improving numbers for loans originated between 2005 and 2007. These are the loans that drove the mortgage market collapse and now represent about 31% of loans outstanding, but 65% of the loans seriously delinquent. Given that loans originated during this period are now past the point where loans normally default, and that loans originated since then generally have better credit quality, mortgage performance should continue to improve.” 

So there you have it, folks. As soon as our local papers and news networks figure out that they can’t headline their reports with the negative foreclosure crisis drama, we may actually begin to hear positive news from the media. Until then, please call us for any information you would like for your neighborhood! The numbers don’t lie!

And Happy New Year to all!