http://wsj-us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=443892&cust=wsj-us#top
Released on 12/17/2010 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2010
Highlights
A slowing in delivery times takes over as the number one plus in the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators which is pointing to accelerating economic growth ahead.
The LEI jumped 1.1 percent in November following two solid half percentage gains in October and September.
Moving to second place, at least for November's report, is the spread between long and short rates -- the wider the spread, the greater the indication for growth.
Given the jump the last two weeks in the 10-year Treasury yield, December's spread appears certain to widen. The spread has long been the number one plus in this series reflecting the Federal Reserve's near zero policy rate.
A decline in jobless claims is a big positive for November as it may be for December.
Growth in money supply is a plus, and keep an eye on this one for the expansionary effects of quantitative easing. Stock prices and the factory workweek are also pluses as are imputed readings for consumers goods output and capital goods output.
Deliveries steal November's report yet it's uncertain whether they will remain a top positive. Goods in short supply are popping up in the monthly Institute For Supply Management reports but not in number, while delivery times in December's Empire State and Philly Fed reports were mixed.
Market Consensus Before AnnouncementThe Conference Board's index of leading indicators jumped 0.5 percent in both October and September. Six of the 10 components advanced in the latest month. A wide yield spread continued to be the biggest positive though to a smaller degree given declines in long rates, The report also included a 0.1 percent uptick in the coincident index, a small gain that follows two unchanged readings in a reminder of the economy's mid-year soft patch and the contrasting acceleration now underway.
DefinitionA composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years - particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points.
