Supply We measure supply using active listing counts. These are coming down fast in many (but not all) areas. The total number for all areas & types in ARMLS residential resale as of March 1 was 40,240. On February 1 this was 42,522 so we are down 5.6% in a single month. Last year on March 1, we had 42,139, so we are down 4.5% in 12 months. This latter number doesn't sound very impressive, but supply was growing last year from June through November, peaking at 45,960 on November 20. Supply has fallen by 12.5% since November 20 and this is a definite signal that overall supply is now on a strong downward trend.
Demand We measure demand using two primary indicators - recent sales and pending listings - and we also keep a watchful eye on total listings under contract (i.e. pending plus AWC). At the moment we are recording 7,155 sales (all areas & types) during February 2011. This is 8.6% higher than January and 11.4% higher than February 2010. Not too shabby. In fact, this is the second highest February sales total for ARMLS (Feb 2005 came top). Pending listings were 11,997 on March 1, up 13.6% from February 1 and 1.8% below March 1, 2010 when we in the grips of tax credit buying fever. These are good demand numbers.
Supply vs. Demand Demand is strong and supply is falling, so that ought to be good for the market. However, sentiment is still very negative after the double dip price drop during the second half of 2010 and it always take several months for an improvement in the market balance to be reflected in pricing. Let us look at segments of the market to see where things are improving fastest.
Where Is Supply Going Down Fastest (over the last month)? A. Special Listing Conditions (all types - Greater Phoenix):
